Tighter monetary policy

Posted by Scriptaty | 6:14 AM

The Reserve Bank of India has been on a tightening path, hiking rates three times since the beginning of the year in an effort to battle rising inflation expectations there. The short term policy rate now stands at 6.00 percent — the highest in four years — and some analysts expect another hike to 6.25 percent before year-end.

The Indian rupee, recently trading around 45 to the U.S. dollar, has been depreciating against the greenback in recent months. However, Stroppiana forecasts some strengthening into year-end in the wake of the apparent end to the U.S. Fed’s tightening cycle, which had been offering underlying support to the dollar.

It may be some time, however, before individual retail traders are checking out the rupee for short-term day trading opportunities.

“By international standards, India is still considered to be a relatively closed economy,” Stroppiana says. “Even though the government has made some progress in opening India’s doors to international flows of investment and trade, it will be some time before this process is complete.”