Weighing the evidence

As of late-February, it was impossible to know what the outcome would be. The daily stochastic oscillator indicated the euro “should” rise — but the intraday and weekly stochastics did not.

Standard support and resistance lines suggested the euro was still in downtrend, as did the Darvas approach, although a bottom may have been established.

Using a pivot point channel, a price over 1.1930 on the next trading day will probably draw buyers while a price under 1.1870 will inspire sellers — but it’s downright scary for a player to have offered a billion dollars worth of euros and not forced the close under the median. The failure of the euro seller implies the next trading days will see another piece of market lore fulfilled: “If you can’t sell it, buy it.”