With two months left in the year, professional currency traders are poised to see their first down year in more than a decade, according to data from a top managed money-tracking firm. The Barclay Group’s (www.barclaygrp.com) Currency Traders Index was down -2.07 percent on the year through Oct. 26. Barclay’s tracks the performance of commodity trading advisors (CTAs) and hedge funds. The last time their currency index finished a year in the red was 1994, when professional currency managers posted a 5.96-percent loss for the year on the heels of a 3.33-percent loss in 1993. These back-to-back declines were the index’s only losing years since 1987.
CTAs haven’t had a good year overall. Barclay’s total CTA index stood at -0.66 percent for the year on Oct. 26. However, end-of-year stock market bullishness — if it materializes — could have the potential to push the overall index into the black.
Barclay’s BTOP FX Index, which reflects the performance of the largest currency managers, was down only -1.1 percent on the year, and was down a marginal -0.14 percent in October. It shows the Value Added Monthly Index (VAMI) line for the BTOP FX index for 2005. It reflects the performance of a hypothetical $1,000 investment based on the index’s daily returns from Dec. 30, 2004 to Oct. 26, 2005.
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