Can’t fight the data

We have reviewed 26 currencies with as many as 34 years of trade data accounting for 100 percent of the Federal Reserve’s trade-weighting scheme.

We found some isolated instances wherein export weights to countries whose currencies had appreciated rose and some isolated instances wherein import weights from countries whose currencies had depreciated rose. These were noted duly.

The preponderance of evidence, however, is income elasticities, trade agreements, economic integration, and the terms in which goods and services are priced, among other factors, are all more important than currencies in affecting trade flows.