Lows on up-closing days

The NZD/USD pair closed higher 150 times. Figure 5 shows all the up-closing days in the analysis period, adjusted so the previous day’s closing price is used as the opening price (the 0.000 line); this highlights how much of each day’s range was above or below the previous close. There were only five days on which the market dropped more than -0.0050 points below the previous close and rallied to close higher on the day.

Figure 6 is the frequency distribution of the lows on up-closing days. The NZD/USD pair traded below the previous session’s close only four times. The largest intraday decline from which the market reversed direction and closed in positive territory was a loss of -0.0072 points. The low on up-closing days was between -0.0024 below the previous close and unchanged 69 percent of the time; it was between -0.0014 below the previous close and unchanged 24 percent of the time.

If the pair traded more than -0.0030 points below the previous day’s close, it closed up for the day just 11 percent of the time.