While most economists expect growth above 3.5 percent in the first half of the year, some moderation is seen into yearend as the impact of higher U.S. interest rates begins to filter through the economy. Moody’s Economy.com forecasts 4.7 percent annualized GDP growth in the first quarter, while the second quarter is estimated at 3.9 percent, the third quarter at 3.7 percent, and the fourth quarter at 3.3 percent.
That compares to Credit Suisse’s forecasts of a 4.7 percent Q1 reading, 3.7 percent in Q2, 3.4 percent in Q3, and 3.3 percent for Q4.
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