Two-tier economy?

One problem with the current situation might be the disconnect many people see between some of the economic numbers vs. their personal experience.

“We continue to get numbers that make the economy look better on paper than it feels to a lot of people,” Swonk says. “Higher energy prices and the weakness in housing disproportionately hits middle and lower-income people. Even though the economy will technically skirt a recession, it may not feel like it to a whole sector of people.”

Despite her relatively optimistic outlook, Swonk sees consumer spending slowing from a 3.0-percent pace in 2007 to a 2.25-percent pace in 2008.

“Consumer spending is moving forward, but it sure doesn’t feel like it,” she says.